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Hat tip to Uncle for finding this chart over at Gun Pundit.
Gun control advocates always argue that CCW rights mean more violence; seems the opposite is true.
Update: Phil points out in comments that Gun Pundit made a couple mistakes that are pretty substantial. Still, I’d be curious to see the violent crime rate using Phil’s methodology for RTC states–I’ll betcha it’s still lower than restricted states. Even at 446, you’re still above the ~400 for the RTC states.
The comparison made by Gun Pundit is flawed.
First, DC isn’t a state — so his comparison is a bit of apples and oranges.
Second, the data shown as the non-RTC state data is a simple average of the violence rates of the non-RTC “so-called” states including DC. It isn’t a fair comparison because the average is seriously distorted by DC’s high rate and small population (1508.4 vice the average without DC of 446). If you weight the data (including DC) by population (do a rate for the non-RTC population as a whole) you arrive at the more reasonable 488 which is slightly above the national average of 473.5 for that year (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_01.html). If you exclude DC since it isn’t a state, the non-RTC state population as a whole has a violent crime rate of 446 which is well below the national average.
Third, it appears (I don’t want to spend any more time on this comparison to check in detail) that Gun Pundit did a simple average of violence for the RTC states rather than a population weighted average.
And, as a minor objection, he included in the 2006 RTC data states Kansas and Nebraska when they became RTC only in the middle of 2006.
Comment by Phil Lee — May 11, 2008 @ 7:33 am
FYI: The chart is from MCRGO.
1 - I guess I don’t think including DC makes it “apples and oranges” just because it isn’t a state. It’s a good chunk of population in a heavily populated area. It’s not like including Puerto Rico or Guam, which are significantly separated (in many ways) from the US when discussing this sort of thing. DC has a higher population than Wyoming. Do we still get to count Wyoming in with the states?
2 - You are right about the way the MCRGO did their math. That’s plain wrong and I will be posting a corrected version shortly.
You are right about an average of 446 without DC, but you are wrong about 446 being below the national average. Without DC, using this (wrong) method, the national average is 410. If you exclude DC from one you have to exclude it from the other.
3 - I think point #3 is the same as point #2.
The averages calculated correctly are
RTC: 466.5 per 100K
US Avg: 473.5 per 100K
Non-RTC: 487.8 per 100K
Comment by Murdoc — May 11, 2008 @ 10:19 pm
Violent Crimes and CCW - UPDATED
On Friday I posted a chart from the Michigan Coalition for Responsible Gun Owners (MCRGO) showing the rate of violent crimes in states with right to carry as defined by the NRA versus the rate of violent crime in those…
Trackback by GunPundit — May 11, 2008 @ 10:58 pm
Updated post here:
http://www.gunpundit.com/542.php
Thanks for catching the problem.
Comment by Murdoc — May 11, 2008 @ 11:00 pm
[…] Go back and check my post on his research, he’s posted some excellent comments that had been languishing in the overactive spam filter. Just cleared it and about 15 other comments from various readers out of there…sorry for the holdup, all. […]
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