Over at THR, Archangel posts a nice little .pdf that picks up where my Ceasefire’s Latest debunking suggests we go–an analysis of their methodology that pretty much decimates their case.

In a nutshell, the BATF and the FBI make it abundantly clear that gun trace data research should NOT be used in an evidentiary fashion or to provide any sort of statistical analysis; so not only do they admit that as many as 90% of gun traces aren’t indicative of a crime, they actually tell you to NOT use gun trace data to suggest crime patterns and trends. Despite their explicit instructions in this regard, Ceasefire Maryland does exactly what the BATF and the FBI tells you not to do in their “Every 48 Hours” piece.

Yup, even though the BATF will tell you that gun trace data is not acceptable for extrapolating crime trends, and you can’t use it to say things like “every 48 hours an assault weapon is linked to a crime”, Ceasefire Maryland does so anyway. We know they’re shameless from their tireless, unethical, and dishonest attacks on John Giannetti and Bob Ehrlich. Now we also know they’ll misrepresent data from federal law enforcement and ignore a direct instruction from them to not use gun trace data to form crime trend conclusions. Why does this matter? It matters because politicians like Martin O’Malley use the 48 Hours drivel to justify their pro-AWB positions. It matters because media outlets parrot Ceasefire’s nonsense incessantly.

It seems the NRA and other big name groups aren’t pounding this point very well. It’s up to people like you and me to do it. Get the word out every way you can!

Interestingly enough, while cleaning Pigtown today, we got to see just why gun trace data isn’t accurate or useful for measuring crime rates. An older gentleman told Ofc. Milburn he had an old firearm he wanted to get rid of. It appeared to be what was left of an old, small magazine fed wooden stocked rifle that didn’t look familiar to me. It certainly wasn’t in firing condition.

Ofc. Milburn said that he was going to run a trace on it to see if it had been stolen.

A perfect example! The gun wasn’t used in a crime, but as I type this a gun trace is being created. Every time someone transfers a firearm, an old firearm isn’t willed to an heir and is confiscated, a criminal is relieved of a gun without actually committing a violent crime, a firearm is reported stolen, etc, a gun trace is performed. Gun trace data does NOT equal crime data.

Ceasefire Maryland’s suggestion to the contrary is reprehensible, contemptible, and unethical. Let them know you think so by emailing them at info@ceasefiremd.org. Feel free to link this article.